The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought the ASX 200 in 2020?
COVID knocked a third off the index in a month. Then iron ore, stimulus and sheer relief dragged it back. A wild year to have done nothing.
$100 on 2020-01-01, worth today
A$132
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of the ASX 200 bought at 2020's open (A$6,691) is worth A$132 — 1.32×.
price return · index level · AUD
How much would $100 of the ASX 200 bought in 2020 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| A$100 | A$132 | 1.32× |
| A$1,000 | A$1,316 | 1.32× |
| A$10,000 | A$13,159 | 1.32× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, tracking the index level (price return, before dividends), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did the ASX 200 do in 2020?
Opened
A$6,691
2020-01-01
Peaked
A$7,163
2020-02-19
Bottomed
A$4,546
2020-03-22
Closed
A$6,587
2020-12-30
These are the index's own closing levels (price return). Real index funds also pay dividends, so a true total-return figure would be higher still.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
A$33,700 deployed as $100 a week from 2020-01-01, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | A$44,345 |
| Steady weekly buys | A$40,542 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | A$40,537 |
| Traded it perfectly | A$42,275 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2020's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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