The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Netflix in 2007?
In January 2007 Netflix was still a DVD-by-mail business that had just launched a curious feature called 'Watch Instantly' to stream movies over the internet. The red envelopes were the present; the streaming toggle nobody used was, quietly, the whole future.
$100 on 2007-01-03, worth today
US$21,137
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Netflix bought at 2007's open (US$0.380) is worth US$21,137 — 211×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of Netflix bought in 2007 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$21,137 | 211× |
| US$1,000 | US$211,365 | 211× |
| US$10,000 | US$2.1M | 211× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Netflix do in 2007?
Opened
US$0.380
2007-01-03
Peaked
US$0.410
2007-12-26
Bottomed
US$0.230
2007-07-24
Closed
US$0.380
2007-12-31
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$101,500 deployed as $100 a week from 2007-01-03, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$21.5M |
| Steady weekly buys | US$4.4M |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$4.9M |
| Traded it perfectly | US$472.5M |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
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