The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Tesla in 2012?
The Model S had just shipped and short-sellers treated Tesla as a punchline, not a future trillion-dollar company.
$100 on 2012-01-03, worth today
US$21,711
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Tesla bought at 2012's open (US$1.87) is worth US$21,711 — 217×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of Tesla bought in 2012 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$21,711 | 217× |
| US$1,000 | US$217,110 | 217× |
| US$10,000 | US$2.2M | 217× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Tesla do in 2012?
Opened
US$1.87
2012-01-03
Peaked
US$2.53
2012-04-03
Bottomed
US$1.52
2012-01-13
Closed
US$2.26
2012-12-31
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$75,400 deployed as $100 a week from 2012-01-03, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$16.4M |
| Steady weekly buys | US$2.3M |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$1.6M |
| Traded it perfectly | US$242.5M |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
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