The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Coinbase in 2022?
The crypto exchange opened 2022 around $251, a few months past its hyped April-2021 debut, just as the deepest crypto winter set in. Terra, then FTX, then an 80%-plus annual collapse to the low $30s — buying the brokerage of a crumbling asset class was, briefly, the worst trade on the board, and exactly the kind this Bureau exists to record.
$100 on 2022-01-03, worth today
US$64
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Coinbase bought at 2022's open (US$251.05) is worth US$64 — 0.64×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of Coinbase bought in 2022 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$64 | 0.64× |
| US$1,000 | US$636 | 0.64× |
| US$10,000 | US$6,364 | 0.64× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Coinbase do in 2022?
Opened
US$251.05
2022-01-03
Peaked
US$251.05
2022-01-03
Bottomed
US$32.53
2022-12-28
Closed
US$35.39
2022-12-30
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$23,200 deployed as $100 a week from 2022-01-03, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$14,766 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$32,038 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$36,671 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$350,780 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2022's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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