The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Eli Lilly in 2022?
Mounjaro won FDA approval for type-2 diabetes in May 2022, and word spread fast about the weight people were losing on it. The GLP-1 gold rush was beginning, and Lilly — opening the year near $275 — was about to become its biggest winner.
$100 on 2022-01-03, worth today
US$434
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Eli Lilly bought at 2022's open (US$260.89) is worth US$434 — 4.34×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of Eli Lilly bought in 2022 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$434 | 4.34× |
| US$1,000 | US$4,343 | 4.34× |
| US$10,000 | US$43,428 | 4.34× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Eli Lilly do in 2022?
Opened
US$260.89
2022-01-03
Peaked
US$364.73
2022-12-02
Bottomed
US$226.27
2022-02-14
Closed
US$356.04
2022-12-30
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$23,200 deployed as $100 a week from 2022-01-03, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$100,754 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$51,367 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$32,096 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$52,635 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2022's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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