The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought NAB in 2020?
NAB cut its dividend for the first time in years as COVID forced the banks to hoard capital. Buying the country's business bank mid-pandemic meant betting the franked cheques would eventually return — they did.
$100 on 2020-01-01, worth today
A$200
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of NAB bought at 2020's open (A$18.26) is worth A$200 — 2.00×.
total return · dividends reinvested · AUD
How much would $100 of NAB bought in 2020 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| A$100 | A$200 | 2.00× |
| A$1,000 | A$1,999 | 2.00× |
| A$10,000 | A$19,991 | 2.00× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did NAB do in 2020?
Opened
A$18.26
2020-01-01
Peaked
A$20.37
2020-02-20
Bottomed
A$10.31
2020-03-22
Closed
A$17.33
2020-12-30
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
A$33,700 deployed as $100 a week from 2020-01-01, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | A$67,370 |
| Steady weekly buys | A$50,886 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | A$42,207 |
| Traded it perfectly | A$66,713 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2020's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
These were the round numbers. Run your real ones.
Your amount, your date, your certificate. Takes about a minute.
Calculate my failureAdjacent timelines