The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought NAB in 2009?
NAB began 2009 near its crisis bottom, weighed down by soured offshore loans and a frozen credit market. The reliable franked-dividend payer was about to spend a decade as the perennial underachiever of the big four.
$100 on 2009-01-01, worth today
A$523
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of NAB bought at 2009's open (A$6.97) is worth A$523 — 5.23×.
total return · dividends reinvested · AUD
How much would $100 of NAB bought in 2009 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| A$100 | A$523 | 5.23× |
| A$1,000 | A$5,233 | 5.23× |
| A$10,000 | A$52,334 | 5.23× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did NAB do in 2009?
Opened
A$6.97
2009-01-01
Peaked
A$11.28
2009-10-13
Bottomed
A$5.48
2009-03-08
Closed
A$9.93
2009-12-30
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
A$91,100 deployed as $100 a week from 2009-01-01, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | A$476,758 |
| Steady weekly buys | A$211,153 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | A$165,261 |
| Traded it perfectly | A$510,149 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2009's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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