The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought the S&P 500 in 2000?
The market topped in March 2000 and didn't reclaim that level for seven years. Buying the index here bought you a lost decade — proof the boring index isn't always painless.
$100 on 2000-01-03, worth today
US$511
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of the S&P 500 bought at 2000's open (US$1,455) is worth US$511 — 5.11×.
price return · index level · USD
How much would $100 of the S&P 500 bought in 2000 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$511 | 5.11× |
| US$1,000 | US$5,107 | 5.11× |
| US$10,000 | US$51,068 | 5.11× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, tracking the index level (price return, before dividends), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did the S&P 500 do in 2000?
Opened
US$1,455
2000-01-03
Peaked
US$1,527
2000-03-24
Bottomed
US$1,265
2000-12-20
Closed
US$1,320
2000-12-29
These are the index's own closing levels (price return). Real index funds also pay dividends, so a true total-return figure would be higher still.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$138,000 deployed as $100 a week from 2000-01-03, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$704,733 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$610,224 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$535,813 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$1M |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2000's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
These were the round numbers. Run your real ones.
Your amount, your date, your certificate. Takes about a minute.
Calculate my failureFrom the Bureau's files
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