The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought the Nasdaq in 2000?
The dotcom blow-off. The Nasdaq shed nearly 78% from here and took fifteen years to see this level again — the cautionary tale every index chart politely hides.
$100 on 2000-01-03, worth today
US$627
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of the Nasdaq bought at 2000's open (US$4,131) is worth US$627 — 6.27×.
price return · index level · USD
How much would $100 of the Nasdaq bought in 2000 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$627 | 6.27× |
| US$1,000 | US$6,267 | 6.27× |
| US$10,000 | US$62,667 | 6.27× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, tracking the index level (price return, before dividends), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did the Nasdaq do in 2000?
Opened
US$4,131
2000-01-03
Peaked
US$5,049
2000-03-10
Bottomed
US$2,333
2000-12-20
Closed
US$2,471
2000-12-29
These are the index's own closing levels (price return). Real index funds also pay dividends, so a true total-return figure would be higher still.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$138,000 deployed as $100 a week from 2000-01-03, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$864,810 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$1.1M |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$642,631 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$2.2M |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2000's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
These were the round numbers. Run your real ones.
Your amount, your date, your certificate. Takes about a minute.
Calculate my failureFrom the Bureau's files
Adjacent timelines