The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Vanguard S&P 500 ETF in 2011?
Vanguard's S&P 500 ETF was barely a year old in 2011, a debt-ceiling standoff and a US credit downgrade rattling a still-fragile recovery. The most boring possible decision — own America at three basis points — quietly compounded into a small fortune.
$100 on 2011-01-03, worth today
US$769
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Vanguard S&P 500 ETF bought at 2011's open (US$88.67) is worth US$769 — 7.69×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of Vanguard S&P 500 ETF bought in 2011 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$769 | 7.69× |
| US$1,000 | US$7,691 | 7.69× |
| US$10,000 | US$76,908 | 7.69× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Vanguard S&P 500 ETF do in 2011?
Opened
US$88.67
2011-01-03
Peaked
US$95.64
2011-04-29
Bottomed
US$77.71
2011-10-03
Closed
US$89.51
2011-12-30
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$80,600 deployed as $100 a week from 2011-01-03, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$619,875 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$282,782 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$227,147 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$289,542 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
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