The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Vanguard S&P 500 ETF in 2020?
COVID erased a third of the index in five weeks, then the fastest recovery on record dragged VOO to close the year up. You didn't need a moonshot stock; you needed the nerve to do nothing.
$100 on 2020-01-02, worth today
US$251
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Vanguard S&P 500 ETF bought at 2020's open (US$271.90) is worth US$251 — 2.51×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of Vanguard S&P 500 ETF bought in 2020 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$251 | 2.51× |
| US$1,000 | US$2,508 | 2.51× |
| US$10,000 | US$25,081 | 2.51× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Vanguard S&P 500 ETF do in 2020?
Opened
US$271.90
2020-01-02
Peaked
US$318.90
2020-12-31
Bottomed
US$186.99
2020-03-23
Closed
US$318.90
2020-12-31
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$33,700 deployed as $100 a week from 2020-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$84,522 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$58,826 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$53,842 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$60,227 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2020's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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