The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Vanguard Total US Market in 2002?
Vanguard's total-market ETF spent its first full year inside the dot-com hangover, the broad US market still grinding lower into late 2002. Owning literally every public US company, bought into the gloom, started a two-decade climb.
$100 on 2002-01-02, worth today
US$1,058
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Vanguard Total US Market bought at 2002's open (US$34.61) is worth US$1,058 — 10.6×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of Vanguard Total US Market bought in 2002 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$1,058 | 10.6× |
| US$1,000 | US$10,584 | 10.6× |
| US$10,000 | US$105,843 | 10.6× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Vanguard Total US Market do in 2002?
Opened
US$34.61
2002-01-02
Peaked
US$35.35
2002-03-19
Bottomed
US$23.94
2002-10-09
Closed
US$27.30
2002-12-31
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$127,600 deployed as $100 a week from 2002-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$1.4M |
| Steady weekly buys | US$719,165 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$465,171 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$1.2M |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
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