The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Vanguard Total US Market in 2008?
The total-market fund offered nowhere to hide as the GFC halved US equities wholesale. Buying the entire market at the 2008 open meant watching half of it vanish before the longest bull run in history hauled it back.
$100 on 2008-01-02, worth today
US$711
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Vanguard Total US Market bought at 2008's open (US$51.55) is worth US$711 — 7.11×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of Vanguard Total US Market bought in 2008 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$711 | 7.11× |
| US$1,000 | US$7,106 | 7.11× |
| US$10,000 | US$71,063 | 7.11× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Vanguard Total US Market do in 2008?
Opened
US$51.55
2008-01-02
Peaked
US$51.55
2008-01-02
Bottomed
US$27.11
2008-11-20
Closed
US$32.88
2008-12-31
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$96,300 deployed as $100 a week from 2008-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$684,340 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$414,284 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$267,320 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$459,599 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2008's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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