The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Xero in 2013?
The New Zealand cloud-accounting upstart had just dual-listed on the ASX and was burning cash to grab subscribers from MYOB and the desktop dinosaurs. Profits were a distant rumour; the bet was purely on the SaaS land-grab.
$100 on 2013-01-01, worth today
A$1,254
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Xero bought at 2013's open (A$5.86) is worth A$1,254 — 12.5×.
total return · dividends reinvested · AUD
How much would $100 of Xero bought in 2013 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| A$100 | A$1,254 | 12.5× |
| A$1,000 | A$12,543 | 12.5× |
| A$10,000 | A$125,427 | 12.5× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Xero do in 2013?
Opened
A$5.86
2013-01-01
Peaked
A$34.20
2013-11-05
Bottomed
A$5.66
2013-02-04
Closed
A$30.40
2013-12-30
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
A$70,200 deployed as $100 a week from 2013-01-01, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | A$880,495 |
| Steady weekly buys | A$152,797 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | A$207,432 |
| Traded it perfectly | A$1.6M |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
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