The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought BHP in 2008?
BHP entered 2008 near $33 at the very top of the China-fuelled commodities supercycle, having just launched an audacious tilt at rival Rio Tinto. The GFC then crushed resource prices and the 'Big Australian' with them, abandoned bid and all.
$100 on 2008-01-01, worth today
A$505
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of BHP bought at 2008's open (A$12.47) is worth A$505 — 5.05×.
total return · dividends reinvested · AUD
How much would $100 of BHP bought in 2008 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| A$100 | A$505 | 5.05× |
| A$1,000 | A$5,046 | 5.05× |
| A$10,000 | A$50,464 | 5.05× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did BHP do in 2008?
Opened
A$12.47
2008-01-01
Peaked
A$15.48
2008-05-19
Bottomed
A$6.68
2008-11-19
Closed
A$9.64
2008-12-30
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
A$96,300 deployed as $100 a week from 2008-01-01, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | A$485,967 |
| Steady weekly buys | A$376,082 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | A$230,500 |
| Traded it perfectly | A$724,812 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2008's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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