The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought BHP in 2016?
BHP started 2016 near $16, gutted by a commodities rout, a slashed-for-the-first-time-in-years dividend and the fatal Samarco dam disaster in Brazil. With iron ore around US$40 a tonne the miner looked broken — which, for a cyclical, is usually the interesting part.
$100 on 2016-01-03, worth today
A$780
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of BHP bought at 2016's open (A$8.07) is worth A$780 — 7.80×.
total return · dividends reinvested · AUD
How much would $100 of BHP bought in 2016 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| A$100 | A$780 | 7.80× |
| A$1,000 | A$7,800 | 7.80× |
| A$10,000 | A$77,996 | 7.80× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did BHP do in 2016?
Opened
A$8.07
2016-01-03
Peaked
A$12.30
2016-11-24
Bottomed
A$6.44
2016-01-20
Closed
A$11.63
2016-12-29
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
A$54,600 deployed as $100 a week from 2016-01-03, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | A$425,856 |
| Steady weekly buys | A$165,267 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | A$93,235 |
| Traded it perfectly | A$170,458 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2016's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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