The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought BHP in 2020?
BHP opened 2020 near $35, fell with everything in March, then found that Chinese steel mills barely paused buying its iron ore through the pandemic. The world locked down; the Pilbara kept shipping, and the dividends kept coming.
$100 on 2020-01-01, worth today
A$282
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of BHP bought at 2020's open (A$22.30) is worth A$282 — 2.82×.
total return · dividends reinvested · AUD
How much would $100 of BHP bought in 2020 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| A$100 | A$282 | 2.82× |
| A$1,000 | A$2,821 | 2.82× |
| A$10,000 | A$28,214 | 2.82× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did BHP do in 2020?
Opened
A$22.30
2020-01-01
Peaked
A$26.44
2020-12-20
Bottomed
A$14.93
2020-03-15
Closed
A$25.70
2020-12-30
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
A$33,700 deployed as $100 a week from 2020-01-01, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | A$95,081 |
| Steady weekly buys | A$64,923 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | A$43,615 |
| Traded it perfectly | A$66,958 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2020's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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