The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Costco in 2020?
Even after the COVID stockpiling spike, Costco opened the year near $295 and looked done — a mature retailer with nowhere left to grow. The hot dog stayed $1.50; the share price did not stay still.
$100 on 2020-01-02, worth today
US$370
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Costco bought at 2020's open (US$265.75) is worth US$370 — 3.70×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of Costco bought in 2020 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$370 | 3.70× |
| US$1,000 | US$3,697 | 3.70× |
| US$10,000 | US$36,965 | 3.70× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Costco do in 2020?
Opened
US$265.75
2020-01-02
Peaked
US$365.67
2020-12-01
Bottomed
US$255.67
2020-03-12
Closed
US$355.50
2020-12-31
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$33,700 deployed as $100 a week from 2020-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$124,574 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$65,177 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$50,285 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$72,571 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2020's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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