The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Costco in 2015?
Already 'fully valued' at around $140, said everyone, for a retailer whose whole edge was selling things barely above cost. It kept opening warehouses, kept renewing members, and quietly kept compounding regardless.
$100 on 2015-01-02, worth today
US$863
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Costco bought at 2015's open (US$113.82) is worth US$863 — 8.63×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of Costco bought in 2015 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$863 | 8.63× |
| US$1,000 | US$8,631 | 8.63× |
| US$10,000 | US$86,311 | 8.63× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Costco do in 2015?
Opened
US$113.82
2015-01-02
Peaked
US$141.70
2015-12-08
Bottomed
US$111.07
2015-08-25
Closed
US$135.51
2015-12-31
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$59,800 deployed as $100 a week from 2015-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$516,140 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$230,914 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$152,806 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$257,195 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2015's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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