The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought the Dow Jones in 2008?
The Dow opened 2008 above 13,000 and spent the year being dismantled by the financial crisis, bottoming near 6,500 the following March. Buying the bluest of blue-chip baskets here meant watching roughly half of it disappear before the longest expansion in its history began.
$100 on 2008-01-02, worth today
US$393
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of the Dow Jones bought at 2008's open (US$13,044) is worth US$393 — 3.93×.
price return · index level · USD
How much would $100 of the Dow Jones bought in 2008 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$393 | 3.93× |
| US$1,000 | US$3,925 | 3.93× |
| US$10,000 | US$39,254 | 3.93× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, tracking the index level (price return, before dividends), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did the Dow Jones do in 2008?
Opened
US$13,044
2008-01-02
Peaked
US$13,058
2008-05-02
Bottomed
US$7,552
2008-11-20
Closed
US$8,776
2008-12-31
These are the index's own closing levels (price return). Real index funds also pay dividends, so a true total-return figure would be higher still.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$96,300 deployed as $100 a week from 2008-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$378,012 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$269,057 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$244,907 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$270,946 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2008's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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