The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought the Nasdaq in 2008?
The financial crisis caught tech with everything else. Buying the Nasdaq into the GFC felt like catching a falling knife. It was — for about a year.
$100 on 2008-01-02, worth today
US$992
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of the Nasdaq bought at 2008's open (US$2,610) is worth US$992 — 9.92×.
price return · index level · USD
How much would $100 of the Nasdaq bought in 2008 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$992 | 9.92× |
| US$1,000 | US$9,921 | 9.92× |
| US$10,000 | US$99,205 | 9.92× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, tracking the index level (price return, before dividends), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did the Nasdaq do in 2008?
Opened
US$2,610
2008-01-02
Peaked
US$2,610
2008-01-02
Bottomed
US$1,316
2008-11-20
Closed
US$1,577
2008-12-31
These are the index's own closing levels (price return). Real index funds also pay dividends, so a true total-return figure would be higher still.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$96,300 deployed as $100 a week from 2008-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$955,344 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$536,476 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$288,291 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$609,174 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2008's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
These were the round numbers. Run your real ones.
Your amount, your date, your certificate. Takes about a minute.
Calculate my failureFrom the Bureau's files
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