The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought the Russell 2000 in 2008?
Small caps had no shelter in the financial crisis — the Russell 2000 was gutted as credit froze and the riskiest companies were dumped first. Buying America's small companies into the panic was terrifying, and, in hindsight, the trade.
$100 on 2008-01-02, worth today
US$391
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of the Russell 2000 bought at 2008's open (US$753.55) is worth US$391 — 3.91×.
price return · index level · USD
How much would $100 of the Russell 2000 bought in 2008 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$391 | 3.91× |
| US$1,000 | US$3,907 | 3.91× |
| US$10,000 | US$39,068 | 3.91× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, tracking the index level (price return, before dividends), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did the Russell 2000 do in 2008?
Opened
US$753.55
2008-01-02
Peaked
US$763.27
2008-06-05
Bottomed
US$385.31
2008-11-20
Closed
US$499.45
2008-12-31
These are the index's own closing levels (price return). Real index funds also pay dividends, so a true total-return figure would be higher still.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$96,300 deployed as $100 a week from 2008-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$376,228 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$251,925 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$185,485 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$276,147 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2008's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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