The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought the Dow Jones in 2020?
The Dow crossed 29,000 in early 2020, then shed more than a third in five weeks as COVID closed the world. By December it had clawed back to record highs, proving once again that the index needs no moonshot — only an investor with the stomach to do nothing.
$100 on 2020-01-02, worth today
US$177
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of the Dow Jones bought at 2020's open (US$28,869) is worth US$177 — 1.77×.
price return · index level · USD
How much would $100 of the Dow Jones bought in 2020 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$177 | 1.77× |
| US$1,000 | US$1,774 | 1.77× |
| US$10,000 | US$17,736 | 1.77× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, tracking the index level (price return, before dividends), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did the Dow Jones do in 2020?
Opened
US$28,869
2020-01-02
Peaked
US$30,606
2020-12-31
Bottomed
US$18,592
2020-03-23
Closed
US$30,606
2020-12-31
These are the index's own closing levels (price return). Real index funds also pay dividends, so a true total-return figure would be higher still.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$33,700 deployed as $100 a week from 2020-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$59,771 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$49,084 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$45,310 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$49,425 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2020's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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