The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought the S&P 500 in 2020?
A 34% crash in five weeks, then the fastest recovery on record. The index closed the year up. Nobody's nerves did.
$100 on 2020-01-02, worth today
US$228
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of the S&P 500 bought at 2020's open (US$3,258) is worth US$228 — 2.28×.
price return · index level · USD
How much would $100 of the S&P 500 bought in 2020 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$228 | 2.28× |
| US$1,000 | US$2,281 | 2.28× |
| US$10,000 | US$22,811 | 2.28× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, tracking the index level (price return, before dividends), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did the S&P 500 do in 2020?
Opened
US$3,258
2020-01-02
Peaked
US$3,756
2020-12-31
Bottomed
US$2,237
2020-03-23
Closed
US$3,756
2020-12-31
These are the index's own closing levels (price return). Real index funds also pay dividends, so a true total-return figure would be higher still.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$33,700 deployed as $100 a week from 2020-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$76,873 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$55,906 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$51,640 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$57,242 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2020's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
These were the round numbers. Run your real ones.
Your amount, your date, your certificate. Takes about a minute.
Calculate my failureFrom the Bureau's files
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