The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought the Nasdaq in 2020?
Lockdown sent the world online and the Nasdaq vertical. The year 'tech stock' and 'unstoppable' briefly meant the same thing.
$100 on 2020-01-02, worth today
US$285
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of the Nasdaq bought at 2020's open (US$9,092) is worth US$285 — 2.85×.
price return · index level · USD
How much would $100 of the Nasdaq bought in 2020 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$285 | 2.85× |
| US$1,000 | US$2,847 | 2.85× |
| US$10,000 | US$28,474 | 2.85× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, tracking the index level (price return, before dividends), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did the Nasdaq do in 2020?
Opened
US$9,092
2020-01-02
Peaked
US$12,899
2020-12-28
Bottomed
US$6,861
2020-03-23
Closed
US$12,888
2020-12-31
These are the index's own closing levels (price return). Real index funds also pay dividends, so a true total-return figure would be higher still.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$33,700 deployed as $100 a week from 2020-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$95,956 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$61,834 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$47,667 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$64,704 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2020's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
These were the round numbers. Run your real ones.
Your amount, your date, your certificate. Takes about a minute.
Calculate my failureFrom the Bureau's files
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