The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Fortescue in 2020?
Fortescue opened 2020 as a low-cost iron-ore powerhouse, and COVID barely dented Chinese demand for the ore it dug. Forrest's once-mocked upstart was now minting record profits and enormous fully-franked dividends, with a green-energy ambition still to come.
$100 on 2020-01-01, worth today
A$373
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Fortescue bought at 2020's open (A$5.42) is worth A$373 — 3.73×.
total return · dividends reinvested · AUD
How much would $100 of Fortescue bought in 2020 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| A$100 | A$373 | 3.73× |
| A$1,000 | A$3,732 | 3.73× |
| A$10,000 | A$37,318 | 3.73× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Fortescue do in 2020?
Opened
A$5.42
2020-01-01
Peaked
A$13.79
2020-12-20
Bottomed
A$4.66
2020-03-08
Closed
A$13.44
2020-12-30
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
A$33,700 deployed as $100 a week from 2020-01-01, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | A$125,762 |
| Steady weekly buys | A$50,045 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | A$35,758 |
| Traded it perfectly | A$57,267 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2020's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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