The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Fortescue in 2016?
Fortescue entered 2016 staring into the abyss: iron ore had collapsed toward US$40 a tonne and the company sat under roughly US$7–8 billion of debt that markets feared it couldn't carry. It slashed its break-even cost, the ore price rebounded, and the near-death miner became a dividend machine — one of the great ASX recoveries.
$100 on 2016-01-03, worth today
A$2,939
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Fortescue bought at 2016's open (A$0.688) is worth A$2,939 — 29.4×.
total return · dividends reinvested · AUD
How much would $100 of Fortescue bought in 2016 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| A$100 | A$2,939 | 29.4× |
| A$1,000 | A$29,392 | 29.4× |
| A$10,000 | A$293,921 | 29.4× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Fortescue do in 2016?
Opened
A$0.688
2016-01-03
Peaked
A$2.61
2016-12-11
Bottomed
A$0.531
2016-01-20
Closed
A$2.25
2016-12-29
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
A$54,600 deployed as $100 a week from 2016-01-03, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | A$1.6M |
| Steady weekly buys | A$272,709 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | A$106,806 |
| Traded it perfectly | A$331,893 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2016's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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