The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Mastercard in 2013?
Split-adjusted near $50 and perennially branded 'too expensive' for a company that just takes a sliver of every transaction. The global swipe-to-tap migration had barely started, and Mastercard rode every cent of it.
$100 on 2013-01-02, worth today
US$1,040
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Mastercard bought at 2013's open (US$47.11) is worth US$1,040 — 10.4×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of Mastercard bought in 2013 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$1,040 | 10.4× |
| US$1,000 | US$10,401 | 10.4× |
| US$10,000 | US$104,009 | 10.4× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Mastercard do in 2013?
Opened
US$47.11
2013-01-02
Peaked
US$77.41
2013-12-31
Bottomed
US$47.08
2013-02-26
Closed
US$77.41
2013-12-31
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$70,200 deployed as $100 a week from 2013-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$730,146 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$228,858 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$103,438 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$278,009 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2013's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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