The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Mastercard in 2009?
Split-adjusted around $15 in the GFC wreckage, three years after its IPO, and tarred with every other financial name despite carrying none of the lending risk. The lesson that 'payments' and 'banks' are not the same business was about to pay handsomely.
$100 on 2009-01-02, worth today
US$3,582
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Mastercard bought at 2009's open (US$13.68) is worth US$3,582 — 35.8×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of Mastercard bought in 2009 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$3,582 | 35.8× |
| US$1,000 | US$35,815 | 35.8× |
| US$10,000 | US$358,152 | 35.8× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Mastercard do in 2009?
Opened
US$13.68
2009-01-02
Peaked
US$23.68
2009-12-29
Bottomed
US$10.90
2009-01-20
Closed
US$23.46
2009-12-31
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$91,100 deployed as $100 a week from 2009-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$3.3M |
| Steady weekly buys | US$665,060 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$245,829 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$808,807 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2009's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
These were the round numbers. Run your real ones.
Your amount, your date, your certificate. Takes about a minute.
Calculate my failureAdjacent timelines