The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Microsoft in 2014?
Satya Nadella took over as CEO in February 2014 with the stock near $37, a level it had bumped against, on and off, since the year 2000. 'Mobile-first, cloud-first' sounded like a slogan; it turned out to be the start of one of the great large-cap re-ratings, with Azure doing the heavy lifting.
$100 on 2014-01-02, worth today
US$1,273
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Microsoft bought at 2014's open (US$30.69) is worth US$1,273 — 12.7×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of Microsoft bought in 2014 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$1,273 | 12.7× |
| US$1,000 | US$12,730 | 12.7× |
| US$10,000 | US$127,300 | 12.7× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Microsoft do in 2014?
Opened
US$30.69
2014-01-02
Peaked
US$41.84
2014-11-13
Bottomed
US$28.89
2014-01-13
Closed
US$39.42
2014-12-31
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$65,000 deployed as $100 a week from 2014-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$827,451 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$267,531 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$162,166 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$368,003 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
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