The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Microsoft in 2020?
By 2020 Microsoft was a trillion-dollar company near $160 and supposedly too vast to grow quickly — then lockdowns put Teams, Azure and the entire remote workforce on its rails. The boring incumbent had become the infrastructure, and the share price noticed.
$100 on 2020-01-02, worth today
US$257
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Microsoft bought at 2020's open (US$151.83) is worth US$257 — 2.57×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of Microsoft bought in 2020 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$257 | 2.57× |
| US$1,000 | US$2,574 | 2.57× |
| US$10,000 | US$25,735 | 2.57× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Microsoft do in 2020?
Opened
US$151.83
2020-01-02
Peaked
US$220.71
2020-09-02
Bottomed
US$128.36
2020-03-16
Closed
US$212.47
2020-12-31
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$33,700 deployed as $100 a week from 2020-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$86,728 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$45,556 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$34,338 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$61,997 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2020's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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