The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Microsoft in 2009?
Microsoft entered 2009 around $20 and still firmly inside its 'dead money' decade, the share price going almost nowhere since the dot-com peak nine years earlier. Steve Ballmer's Windows-and-Office machine was the stock everyone owned and nobody loved — right before the cloud quietly changed the maths.
$100 on 2009-01-02, worth today
US$2,644
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Microsoft bought at 2009's open (US$14.78) is worth US$2,644 — 26.4×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of Microsoft bought in 2009 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$2,644 | 26.4× |
| US$1,000 | US$26,438 | 26.4× |
| US$10,000 | US$264,382 | 26.4× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Microsoft do in 2009?
Opened
US$14.78
2009-01-02
Peaked
US$23.35
2009-12-29
Bottomed
US$11.09
2009-03-09
Closed
US$22.68
2009-12-31
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$91,100 deployed as $100 a week from 2009-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$2.4M |
| Steady weekly buys | US$760,412 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$431,490 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$1M |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2009's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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