The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Novo Nordisk in 2015?
A century-old Danish insulin maker, steady and dull, with a new class of GLP-1 drugs just beginning to show promise beyond diabetes. The boring-pharma year, before the word 'Ozempic' meant anything.
$100 on 2015-01-02, worth today
US$269
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Novo Nordisk bought at 2015's open (US$16.32) is worth US$269 — 2.69×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of Novo Nordisk bought in 2015 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$269 | 2.69× |
| US$1,000 | US$2,688 | 2.69× |
| US$10,000 | US$26,880 | 2.69× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Novo Nordisk do in 2015?
Opened
US$16.32
2015-01-02
Peaked
US$23.50
2015-08-03
Bottomed
US$16.10
2015-01-06
Closed
US$22.66
2015-12-31
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$59,800 deployed as $100 a week from 2015-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$160,744 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$88,597 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$101,495 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$264,821 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2015's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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