The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Novo Nordisk in 2018?
Pricing pressure on diabetes drugs had the market treating Novo as a value trap with little growth left. Behind the scenes, the obesity trials that would rewrite its future were already running.
$100 on 2018-01-02, worth today
US$196
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Novo Nordisk bought at 2018's open (US$22.38) is worth US$196 — 1.96×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of Novo Nordisk bought in 2018 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$196 | 1.96× |
| US$1,000 | US$1,961 | 1.96× |
| US$10,000 | US$19,611 | 1.96× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Novo Nordisk do in 2018?
Opened
US$22.38
2018-01-02
Peaked
US$24.02
2018-01-26
Bottomed
US$17.57
2018-10-11
Closed
US$19.49
2018-12-31
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$44,100 deployed as $100 a week from 2018-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$86,485 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$51,717 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$65,086 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$149,544 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2018's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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