The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Palantir in 2021?
Fresh off its September 2020 direct listing, Palantir opened 2021 near $24 amid meme-stock euphoria, dismissed by skeptics as an opaque government-contractor with a charismatic founder. The 'spy software, not a real business' year, before AIP existed.
$100 on 2021-01-04, worth today
US$548
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Palantir bought at 2021's open (US$23.37) is worth US$548 — 5.48×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of Palantir bought in 2021 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$548 | 5.48× |
| US$1,000 | US$5,477 | 5.48× |
| US$10,000 | US$54,767 | 5.48× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Palantir do in 2021?
Opened
US$23.37
2021-01-04
Peaked
US$39.00
2021-01-27
Bottomed
US$17.96
2021-12-20
Closed
US$18.21
2021-12-31
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$28,500 deployed as $100 a week from 2021-01-04, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$156,085 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$188,768 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$47,533 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$511,084 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2021's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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