The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought PayPal in 2021?
PayPal closed at an all-time high of $308.53 in July 2021, a pandemic darling priced for a digital-payments future that never fully arrived. From that peak the stock shed more than three-quarters of its value — a textbook case of buying the top.
$100 on 2021-01-04, worth today
US$18
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of PayPal bought at 2021's open (US$229.93) is worth US$18 — 0.18×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of PayPal bought in 2021 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$18 | 0.18× |
| US$1,000 | US$181 | 0.18× |
| US$10,000 | US$1,806 | 0.18× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did PayPal do in 2021?
Opened
US$229.93
2021-01-04
Peaked
US$305.88
2021-07-23
Bottomed
US$177.78
2021-12-01
Closed
US$186.96
2021-12-31
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$28,500 deployed as $100 a week from 2021-01-04, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$5,148 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$15,103 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$18,199 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$29,031 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2021's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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