The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Rio Tinto in 2020?
COVID barely dented Chinese steel demand, and Rio's iron ore earnings stayed extraordinary even as the world locked down. The year was also Juukan Gorge — the blast that cost the CEO his job and the company its social licence.
$100 on 2020-01-01, worth today
A$282
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Rio Tinto bought at 2020's open (A$65.27) is worth A$282 — 2.82×.
total return · dividends reinvested · AUD
How much would $100 of Rio Tinto bought in 2020 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| A$100 | A$282 | 2.82× |
| A$1,000 | A$2,824 | 2.82× |
| A$10,000 | A$28,238 | 2.82× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Rio Tinto do in 2020?
Opened
A$65.27
2020-01-01
Peaked
A$81.32
2020-12-20
Bottomed
A$51.97
2020-03-11
Closed
A$78.05
2020-12-30
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
A$33,700 deployed as $100 a week from 2020-01-01, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | A$95,161 |
| Steady weekly buys | A$67,312 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | A$51,711 |
| Traded it perfectly | A$71,011 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2020's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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