The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Rio Tinto in 2016?
Iron ore had crashed to around US$40 a tonne and Rio started 2016 at multi-year lows as miners were left for dead. The commodity then doubled, and the unloved bulk-miner became a dividend machine again.
$100 on 2016-01-03, worth today
A$814
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Rio Tinto bought at 2016's open (A$22.65) is worth A$814 — 8.14×.
total return · dividends reinvested · AUD
How much would $100 of Rio Tinto bought in 2016 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| A$100 | A$814 | 8.14× |
| A$1,000 | A$8,136 | 8.14× |
| A$10,000 | A$81,363 | 8.14× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Rio Tinto do in 2016?
Opened
A$22.65
2016-01-03
Peaked
A$33.39
2016-12-11
Bottomed
A$18.80
2016-02-02
Closed
A$31.85
2016-12-29
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
A$54,600 deployed as $100 a week from 2016-01-03, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | A$444,243 |
| Steady weekly buys | A$171,020 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | A$109,799 |
| Traded it perfectly | A$180,427 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2016's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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