The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Shopify in 2020?
Lockdowns forced every corner shop online, and Shopify briefly became Canada's most valuable company. The year e-commerce infrastructure went from boring to euphoric — then gave much of it back in 2022.
$100 on 2020-01-02, worth today
US$265
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Shopify bought at 2020's open (US$40.78) is worth US$265 — 2.65×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of Shopify bought in 2020 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$265 | 2.65× |
| US$1,000 | US$2,654 | 2.65× |
| US$10,000 | US$26,542 | 2.65× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Shopify do in 2020?
Opened
US$40.78
2020-01-02
Peaked
US$127.71
2020-12-22
Bottomed
US$32.23
2020-03-16
Closed
US$113.19
2020-12-31
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$33,700 deployed as $100 a week from 2020-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$89,446 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$50,744 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$20,915 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$208,420 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2020's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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