The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought the S&P 500 in 2015?
A flat, choppy year that went almost nowhere — then quietly compounded into a small fortune over the decade that followed.
$100 on 2015-01-02, worth today
US$361
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of the S&P 500 bought at 2015's open (US$2,058) is worth US$361 — 3.61×.
price return · index level · USD
How much would $100 of the S&P 500 bought in 2015 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$361 | 3.61× |
| US$1,000 | US$3,611 | 3.61× |
| US$10,000 | US$36,107 | 3.61× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, tracking the index level (price return, before dividends), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did the S&P 500 do in 2015?
Opened
US$2,058
2015-01-02
Peaked
US$2,131
2015-05-21
Bottomed
US$1,868
2015-08-25
Closed
US$2,044
2015-12-31
These are the index's own closing levels (price return). Real index funds also pay dividends, so a true total-return figure would be higher still.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$59,800 deployed as $100 a week from 2015-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$215,917 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$136,743 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$115,349 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$140,021 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
These were the round numbers. Run your real ones.
Your amount, your date, your certificate. Takes about a minute.
Calculate my failureFrom the Bureau's files
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