The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought TSMC in 2019?
Trade-war headlines and a cyclical chip slump had the ADR drifting near the mid-$30s. TSMC was already quietly winning the race to the smallest transistors that every AI accelerator would later depend on — and almost nobody outside Hsinchu cared.
$100 on 2019-01-02, worth today
US$1,364
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of TSMC bought at 2019's open (US$31.08) is worth US$1,364 — 13.6×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of TSMC bought in 2019 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$1,364 | 13.6× |
| US$1,000 | US$13,641 | 13.6× |
| US$10,000 | US$136,414 | 13.6× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did TSMC do in 2019?
Opened
US$31.08
2019-01-02
Peaked
US$52.42
2019-12-17
Bottomed
US$29.24
2019-01-03
Closed
US$51.77
2019-12-31
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$38,900 deployed as $100 a week from 2019-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$530,651 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$197,247 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$133,335 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$379,290 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2019's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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