The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought TSMC in 2023?
The ADR opened 2023 around $75 amid recession fears and soft phone demand, the year before 'everyone needs more compute' became received wisdom. The foundry that actually prints the AI boom was, briefly, on sale.
$100 on 2023-01-03, worth today
US$603
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of TSMC bought at 2023's open (US$70.29) is worth US$603 — 6.03×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of TSMC bought in 2023 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$603 | 6.03× |
| US$1,000 | US$6,031 | 6.03× |
| US$10,000 | US$60,312 | 6.03× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did TSMC do in 2023?
Opened
US$70.29
2023-01-03
Peaked
US$102.51
2023-06-14
Bottomed
US$70.29
2023-01-03
Closed
US$100.66
2023-12-29
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$18,000 deployed as $100 a week from 2023-01-03, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$108,561 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$52,705 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$43,112 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$55,400 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2023's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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