The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought TSMC in 2009?
The world's most important factory you'd never heard of, trading around $8 (ADR) in the smoke of the financial crisis. Every chip in your future devices would pass through its fabs — a fact the market priced like an afterthought.
$100 on 2009-01-02, worth today
US$8,719
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of TSMC bought at 2009's open (US$4.86) is worth US$8,719 — 87.2×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of TSMC bought in 2009 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$8,719 | 87.2× |
| US$1,000 | US$87,185 | 87.2× |
| US$10,000 | US$871,853 | 87.2× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did TSMC do in 2009?
Opened
US$4.86
2009-01-02
Peaked
US$7.13
2009-12-31
Bottomed
US$4.13
2009-01-20
Closed
US$7.13
2009-12-31
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$91,100 deployed as $100 a week from 2009-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$7.9M |
| Steady weekly buys | US$2.1M |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$772,380 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$5M |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2009's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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