The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Vanguard Total US Market in 2020?
COVID knocked a third off everything at once, total-market index included, then handed back one of the fastest recoveries ever. A wild year in which the smartest move was, once again, no move.
$100 on 2020-01-02, worth today
US$243
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Vanguard Total US Market bought at 2020's open (US$150.59) is worth US$243 — 2.43×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of Vanguard Total US Market bought in 2020 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$243 | 2.43× |
| US$1,000 | US$2,433 | 2.43× |
| US$10,000 | US$24,329 | 2.43× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Vanguard Total US Market do in 2020?
Opened
US$150.59
2020-01-02
Peaked
US$180.82
2020-12-31
Bottomed
US$102.15
2020-03-23
Closed
US$180.82
2020-12-31
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$33,700 deployed as $100 a week from 2020-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$81,987 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$57,702 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$52,951 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$58,957 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2020's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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