The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Xero in 2020?
By the pandemic, small businesses everywhere were forced online and Xero's cloud subscriptions looked less like a gamble and more like infrastructure. Near $80 it was richly valued — and lockdown was about to make subscription software the only thing anyone wanted to own.
$100 on 2020-01-01, worth today
A$92
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Xero bought at 2020's open (A$79.75) is worth A$92 — 0.92×.
total return · dividends reinvested · AUD
How much would $100 of Xero bought in 2020 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| A$100 | A$92 | 0.92× |
| A$1,000 | A$922 | 0.92× |
| A$10,000 | A$9,216 | 0.92× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Xero do in 2020?
Opened
A$79.75
2020-01-01
Peaked
A$154.00
2020-12-16
Bottomed
A$58.75
2020-03-22
Closed
A$146.82
2020-12-30
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
A$33,700 deployed as $100 a week from 2020-01-01, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | A$31,059 |
| Steady weekly buys | A$22,622 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | A$28,119 |
| Traded it perfectly | A$85,409 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2020's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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