The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought AMD in 2016?
AMD opened 2016 at $2.77 and would soon trade under $2 — a chip company widely written off as Intel roadkill, a year before Zen shipped and changed the argument. The $100 that nobody wanted to risk here is the regret that still aches.
$100 on 2016-01-04, worth today
US$18,468
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of AMD bought at 2016's open (US$2.77) is worth US$18,468 — 185×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of AMD bought in 2016 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$18,468 | 185× |
| US$1,000 | US$184,682 | 185× |
| US$10,000 | US$1.8M | 185× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did AMD do in 2016?
Opened
US$2.77
2016-01-04
Peaked
US$12.07
2016-12-27
Bottomed
US$1.80
2016-01-20
Closed
US$11.34
2016-12-30
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$54,600 deployed as $100 a week from 2016-01-04, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$10.1M |
| Steady weekly buys | US$1.3M |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$642,413 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$10.5M |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2016's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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