The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought PayPal in 2016?
Freshly spun out of eBay in mid-2015, PayPal spent its first full year as an independent company proving it could grow without its former parent. The unglamorous payments plumbing quietly tripled over the next five years.
$100 on 2016-01-04, worth today
US$121
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of PayPal bought at 2016's open (US$34.45) is worth US$121 — 1.21×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of PayPal bought in 2016 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$121 | 1.21× |
| US$1,000 | US$1,205 | 1.21× |
| US$10,000 | US$12,055 | 1.21× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did PayPal do in 2016?
Opened
US$34.45
2016-01-04
Peaked
US$43.77
2016-10-21
Bottomed
US$30.93
2016-01-20
Closed
US$39.13
2016-12-30
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$54,600 deployed as $100 a week from 2016-01-04, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$65,818 |
| Steady weekly buys | US$31,190 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$40,489 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$147,517 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2016's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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