The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought AMD in 2018?
Ryzen had landed and the stock had escaped penny-territory to around $11, but data-centre AMD was still a hopeful story, not a fact. 'Already up from the lows, surely too late now' was the consensus. It was not.
$100 on 2018-01-02, worth today
US$4,659
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of AMD bought at 2018's open (US$10.98) is worth US$4,659 — 46.6×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of AMD bought in 2018 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$4,659 | 46.6× |
| US$1,000 | US$46,591 | 46.6× |
| US$10,000 | US$465,911 | 46.6× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did AMD do in 2018?
Opened
US$10.98
2018-01-02
Peaked
US$32.72
2018-09-14
Bottomed
US$9.53
2018-04-02
Closed
US$18.46
2018-12-31
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$44,100 deployed as $100 a week from 2018-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$2.1M |
| Steady weekly buys | US$439,294 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$279,331 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$3.1M |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2018's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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