The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought ASML in 2009?
In the depths of the financial crisis, ASML was an unglamorous Dutch maker of chip-printing machines that few outside the industry could name. Its still-experimental EUV technology would later become the single chokepoint of the entire semiconductor world.
$100 on 2009-01-02, worth today
US$11,156
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of ASML bought at 2009's open (US$16.70) is worth US$11,156 — 112×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of ASML bought in 2009 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$11,156 | 112× |
| US$1,000 | US$111,559 | 112× |
| US$10,000 | US$1.1M | 112× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did ASML do in 2009?
Opened
US$16.70
2009-01-02
Peaked
US$32.32
2009-12-22
Bottomed
US$13.11
2009-03-02
Closed
US$31.78
2009-12-31
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$91,100 deployed as $100 a week from 2009-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$10.2M |
| Steady weekly buys | US$2M |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$1.5M |
| Traded it perfectly | US$4.7M |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2009's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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