The Bureau of Historic Losses · Counterfactual Division
What if you'd bought Costco in 2009?
A warehouse that sells $1.50 hot dogs, trading near $53 in the depths of the financial crisis. No moonshot, no narrative — just memberships renewing year after year. The least glamorous fortune on this list started in a recession.
$100 on 2009-01-02, worth today
US$2,639
As of 2026-06-12, $100 of Costco bought at 2009's open (US$37.22) is worth US$2,639 — 26.4×.
total return · dividends reinvested · USD
How much would $100 of Costco bought in 2009 be worth today?
| You'd have put in | You'd have now | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| US$100 | US$2,639 | 26.4× |
| US$1,000 | US$26,392 | 26.4× |
| US$10,000 | US$263,920 | 26.4× |
Lump sum on the year's first trading day, total return (dividends reinvested, splits adjusted), valued at the latest close. Past performance isn't a promise — it's a taunt.
What did Costco do in 2009?
Opened
US$37.22
2009-01-02
Peaked
US$43.25
2009-11-16
Bottomed
US$26.92
2009-03-09
Closed
US$41.87
2009-12-31
Levels are dividend-adjusted, so historical figures look lower than the headline price of the day — that's the total-return lens, and it's the honest one.
Would steady buying have beaten going all in?
US$91,100 deployed as $100 a week from 2009-01-02, under four temperaments — same money, different nerves.
| All in on day one | US$2.4M |
| Steady weekly buys | US$774,712 |
| Sold dips, rebought rallies | US$479,720 |
| Traded it perfectly | US$862,976 |
“Traded it perfectly” requires knowing the future. Nobody knew the future.
The same $1,000, elsewhere
$1,000 at 2009's open, each valued at the latest close. Hindsight remains undefeated.
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